Survey finds almost half of respondents say Gibran not fit to be VP candidate

Source – November 6, 2023
Prabowo Subianto (left) Gibran Rakabuming Raka (right) at declaration of candidates – October 25, 2023 (Antara)

Ihsanuddin, Jakarta – The results of a Charta Politika survey on October 26-31 show that almost half of respondents or 48.9 percent believe that Solo Mayor Gibran Rakabuming Raka is not fit to run as a vice presidential candidate (cawapres) in the 2024 presidential elections.

"We asked further about the suitability of Gibran Rakabuming become a cawapres, 48.9 percent said he was unsuitable, and there were 38.2 percent who said he was suitable", said Charta Politika Executive Director Yunarto Wijaya on Monday November 6.

Wijaya said that out of those who said that Gibran was unsuitable as a vice presidential candidate, the majority or 55.4 percent consider him to be too young and not to have enough experience as a public official.

Gibran only held the post of Solo mayor for less than three years before deciding to step forward as Defense Minister Prabowo Subianto's vice presidential running mate.

According to Wijaya, this is different from the experience of Gibran's father, President Joko "Jokowi" Widodo.

Before stepping forward in the 2014 presidential elections, Widodo already had the experience of almost two terms as Solo mayor and had been elected as the governor of Jakarta.

Wijaya continued saying that 26.7 percent of respondents felt that Gibran is unsuitable because he is part of the practice of political dynasties.

"There were 12.4 percent with more negative language again and the tone was that Gibran Rakabuming's nomination as vice presidential candidate was a concrete form of misuse of power by President Joko Widodo", he said.

Then, there was 3.2 percent who considered Gibran to be unsuitable as a vice presidential candidate because he is seen as ambitious and has no loyalty to a political party, while 2.3 percent of respondents do not know or do not answer.

Wijaya is of the view that the survey's findings show that the controversy over Gibran's nomination is not just an issue that affected the interests of the Indonesian Democratic Party of Struggle (PDI-P) as the party abandoned by Gibran.

Because, the public's attitude that Gibran is unsuitable as a vice presidential candidate is more based on an assessment of Gibran's lack of experience and the practice of political dynasties.

"The assessment of Gibran's lack of experienced and also the formation of a political dynasty and the abuse of power appear to be far greater than framing it as if the criticism that emerged against Mas [Brother] Gibran and the MK [Constitutional Court's] ruling [that allowed him to run] was only because of groups that were offended or just the PDI-P", said Wijaya.

Electoral liability for Prabowo

The same survey also showed that Gibran has in fact become a burden for Prabowo. This is reflected by Prabowo's electability that in fact declined after announcing Gibran as his running mate.

"We can see or speculate and make a hypothesis that the inclusion of the name Mas Gibran as a cawapres has instead become a liability, not an asset", said Wijaya during a press conference on Monday.

Wijaya said that based on the results of a survey on 13-17 October, head to head Prabowo's electability was superior to the PDI-P's presidential candidate former Central Java governor Ganjar Pranowo with a difference of 9.8 percent, namely 49.4 percent compared to 39.6 percent.

However Prabowo's electability in fact declined to 44.4 percent based on a survey for the period October 26-31 after Gibran was announced as his running mate.

In the same period, Pranowo's electability, who is running with Coordinating Minister for Security, Politics and Legal Affairs Mahfud MD as his vice presidential candidate, actually increased to 40.8 percent.

The difference in electability between Prabowo and Pranowo based on the latest survey has also narrowed to 3.6 percent.

"Even though Mas Gibran confidently said, 'Stay calm Pak [Mr] Prabowo, I'm here', it turns out that if we read it electorally, on the contrary in statistically quantitative terms it is in fact a burden for Pak Prabowo", said Wijaya.

The survey was conducted on October 26-31 by holding interviews with 2,400 respondents from 38 provinces in Indonesia. The survey had a 2.0 percent margin of error.

[Translated by James Balowski. The original title of the article was "Survei Charta Politika: Hampir Separuh Responden Anggap Gibran Tak Layak Jadi Cawapres".]