Ihsanuddin, Jakarta – A December 2018 survey by Denny JA Indonesian Survey Circle (LSI) shows that six parties contesting the 2019 legislative elections will not get enough votes to pass the parliamentary threshold of 4 percent required to gain a seat in the House of Representatives (DPR).
Five other parties meanwhile are not yet assured of gaining seats in the DPR for the 2019-2024 period.
The six political parties that may not gain seats in the DPR are:
- Hanura Party: 0.6 percent
- Crescent Star Party (PBB): 0.2 percent
- Garuda Party: 0.2 percent
- Indonesian Solidarity Party (PSI): 0.1 percent
- Working Party: 0.1 percent
- Indonesian Justice and Unity Party (PKPI): 0.1 percent
Even if their vote share is added to by the survey’s 2.9 percent margin of error, this will still not be enough to pass the parliamentary threshold and gain a seat in the DPR.
LSI researcher Ardian Sopa said that as new political parties, the PSI, the Working Party and the Garuda Party are finding it difficult to compete with the older more established parties.
Meanwhile although Hanura, the PBB and the PKPI are established parties, they are finding it difficult to raise their level of electability because they do not have any big ideas that they can offer to the public.
“These three parties are old parties, but they haven’t had any ideas or campaign breakthroughs over the last five months which are being heard on a wide scale by the pubic”, said Sopa in a media release on the results of the survey at the LSI offices in Jakarta on Tuesday January 8.
Five other parties meanwhile are not fully assured of getting into Senayan, as the DPR is known:
- Justice and Prosperity Party (PKS): 3.3 percent
- United Development Party (PPP): 3 percent
- National Democratic Party (Nasdem): 2.8 percent
- National Mandate Party (PAN): 1.8 percent
- Indonesian Unity Party (Perindo): 1.9 percent
Although the electability of these five parties based on the survey results is still below the 4 percent threshold, if added to by the 2.9 percent margin of error the five could still pass the parliamentary threshold.
Sopa believes that out of these six parties, Nasdem and Perindo have benefited from having a mass media network and the popularity level of their parties’ chairpersons is also relatively high.
The PKS meanwhile can also relay on its ranks of militant cadre and volunteers. “Meanwhile the PPP and the PAN need to find something to jack up their vote if they want to be sure of safely getting into parliament’, said Sopa.
The LSI survey was carried out using a multistage random sampling of 1,200 respondents. It was conducted using face-to-face interviews with respondents using a questioner. The survey’s margin of error was plus or minus 2.9 percent.
Unlike previous elections in which legislative elections were held before the presidential election, allowing political parties to focus on getting their candidates into the national and regional parliaments first then campaign for their preferred presidential candidate later, the 2019 legislative elections will be held simultaneously.
This has created a quandary for the party coalitions backing the two presidential tickets because inevitably the campaign and media coverage is tending to focus on the presidential candidates incumbent President Joko “Jokowi” Widodo and his rival Prabowo Subianto and their respective parties – the ruling Indonesian Democratic Party of Struggle (PDI-P) and the Greater Indonesia Movement Party (Gerindra) – at the expense of the other political parties backing them.
[Translated by James Balowski. The original title of the article was “Survei LSI: 6 Partai Tak Lolos ke DPR, 5 Partai Belum Aman”.]