Jakarta – The latest Kompas Research and Development (Litbang Kompas) survey predicts that as many as 12 out of the 18 political parties that will take part in the 2024 elections will not gain any seats in the House of Representatives (DPR).
These parties are expected to fail to garner enough votes to meet the 4 percent parliamentary threshold.
Quoting from Kompas.id, three of the 12 parties that are predicted not to qualify are Islamic based parties that currently hold seats in the parliament, namely the Justice and Prosperity (PKS), the National Mandate Party (PAN) and the United Development Party (PPP).
Although according to the survey results, the PKS, PAN and the United Indonesia Party (Perindo) will still garner more than 3 percent of the vote. The PKS will garner 3.8 percent, PAN 3.2 percent and Perindo 3.1 percent. The PPP meanwhile will only obtain 2.9 percent.
Eight other political parties meanwhile are predicted to obtain less than 1 percent of the vote, such as the People's Conscience Party (Hanura) with 0.6 percent and the Crescent Star Party (PBB) with 0.4 percent.
They are followed by the Indonesian Solidarity Party (PSI), the Indonesian People's Wave Party (Gelora) and the Labor Party with 0.3 percent, the Indonesian Reform Movement Party (Garuda Party) with 0.2 percent, the Ummah Party with 0.1 percent and the National Populist Party (PKN) with 0.0 percent.
On the other hand, the six political parties predicted to qualify for seats in the parliament are the ruling Indonesian Democratic Party of Struggle (PDI-P) with 23.3 percent of the vote, followed by the Greater Indonesia Movement Party (Gerindra) with 18.6 percent, the Democrat Party with 8 percent, the Golkar Party with 7.3 percent, the National Democratic Party (NasDem) with 6.3 percent and the National Awakening Party (PKB) with 5.5 percent.
According to the survey, 15.8 percent of respondents said that they did not know who they would vote or did not answer.
The survey, which was conducted between April 29 and May 10, involved 1,200 respondents from 38 provinces and used a simple multistage random sampling method with a confidence level of 95 percent and a margin of error of 2.8 percent.
Parliamentary party response
In response to the survey, PAN Deputy Chairperson Viva Yoga claimed that they are not worried about the results of this and several other surveys that predict his party will fail to stroll into Senayan – as the parliament is known.
"Since 2004 and up until 2023, PAN has always been surveyed as a party that won't pass the parliamentary threshold, starting from when the parliamentary threshold (PT) was 2 percent, then 3 percent, and now 4 percent", said Yoga.
Similarly, PKS spokesperson M. Iqbal believes his party will still qualify for a seat in Senayan in the upcoming elections and is optimistic that votes for the PKS could exceed the parliamentary threshold.
"The PKS is optimistic that it can exceed the PT in the 2024 election", said Iqbal.
The PPP meanwhile claimed that they are not panicking over the Litbang Kompas survey results, saying that the surveys conducted by a number of polling institutions are not the main reference for PPP in politics.
"A survey is not an election result, so the PPP is absolutely not panicking. Because over the history of elections, the PPP has always been portrayed as failing to pass the PT, but [each time] it turned out that the PPP passed the PT, because the PPP wants to take part in an election, not to take part in a survey", said PPP Central Leadership Board (DPP) Chairperson Achmad Baidowi alias Awiek. (mnf/fra)
[Translated by James Balowski. The original title of the article was "Survei Kompas Prediksi 12 Parpol Tak Lolos Parlemen di Pemilu 2024".]