Survey group predicts 14 possible presidential contenders in 2024

Detik News – July 2, 2019
Rully Akbar (right) speaking at LSI Denny JA press conference – July 2, 2019 (Detik)
Rully Akbar (right) speaking at LSI Denny JA press conference – July 2, 2019 (Detik)

Zunita Putri, Jakarta – The Denny JA Indonesian Survey Circle (LSI) predicts that there will be 14 possible contenders for the 2024 presidential election.

LSI researcher Rully Akbar says that there are four categories of recruitment sources for presidential candidates (capres). These four categories are based on the backgrounds of former Indonesian presidents.

“First those that have held administrative posts such as [Suharto’s successor] BJ Habibie who previously held the post of vice president, and Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono (SBY) who had held a ministerial post in [former president] Megawati Sukarnoputri’s cabinet. Second, those who are senior parpol [political party] leaders, third those who originate from the regions, fourth those who originate from professional circles, the private sector or ormas [mass or social organisations] such as [former president] Abdurrahman Wahid or Gus Dur”, said Akbar during a press conference at the Graha Dua Rajawali LSI building in East Jakarta on Tuesday July 2.

Aside from these four categories, Akbar said that the basis for taking these 15 names was also derived from four other criteria. These criteria are a based on a subjective assessment by the LSI team.

“The criteria for a 2024 capres are. First, they will be people who are identifiable or with a popularity above 25 percent. So it will be rather difficult for those who are still only known by 5 percent [of voters], second coming from the presidential recruitment sources we cited earlier, third those who have potential (a subjective assessment by the LSI team)”, he explained [not citing the four criteria].

The following are the 15 names of potential 2024 presidential candidates according to LSI Denny JA:

Capres rising through the ranks of regional governments (governors, regional heads, regents):

1. Ridwan Kamil (West Java Governor)
2. Anies Baswedan (Jakarta Governor)
3. Ganjar Pranowo (Central Java governor)
4. Khofifah Indar Prawansa (East Java Governor)

Capres rising through the ranks of political parties:

5. Prabowo Subianto (Greater Indonesia Movement Party chairperson, losing 2014 and 2019 capres)
6. Sandiaga Uno (Prabowo’s 2019 vice presidential running mate, inactive Jakarta deputy governor, business tycoon)
7. Airlangga Hartarto (Golkar Party chairperson, Industry Minister)
8. Agus Harimurti Yudhoyono (AHY, Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono’s son and leading Democratic Party politician)
9. Puan Maharani (Megawati Sukarnoputri’s daughter, ruling Indonesian Democratic Party of Struggle leader, Coordinating Minister for Human Development)
10. Muhaimin Iskandar (National Awakening Party Chairperson)

Capres rising through the administration:

11. Sri Mulyani (Finance Minister)
12. Budi Gunawan (State Intelligence Agency chief)
13. Tito Karnavian (National Police Chief)
14. Gatot Nurmantyo (former Armed Forces commander)

15. Mr/Mrs X

In addition to these 14 names, one name was intentionally left out by the LSI. This is a reflection of the case of President Joko “Jokowi” Widodo who came forward suddenly as a possible presidential candidate yet prior to this his name was not included in the 2014 presidential contest.

“Mr/Mrs X hasn’t entered the radar yet, but has the potential to become president in 2024. We’re reflecting on the Jokowi case five years before in 2014, when Jokowi’s name had not yet been considered. Who knows if there is another Jokowi whose name hasn’t been seen yet. We will be researching this over the next five years, we will conduct surveys and research on new names coming into range as 2024 capres”, he explained.

[Translated by James Balowski. The original title of the article was “14 Bakal Capres 2024 Versi LSI: Anies, RK hingga Sri Mulyani”.]